虽然户式中央空调目前存在着价格偏高、安装技术不够成熟、服务质量不到位等问题，但上海作为一座现代国际大都市、国内经济发展的“领头羊”，户式中央空调将来势必会蓬勃发展。顺应时代需求，作为一名空调专业学生，也就有必要研究上海专家对户式中央空调三种主要型式风管系统、水管系统和制冷剂系统的定量评价、确定住户选用空调型式的主要影响因素以及预测三种型式未来各自发展趋势和户式中央空调行业市场前景，从而为该行业的发展、定位提供参考意见和实现本课题研究的社会实践价值。

本课题首先是采用访问调查和网络调查等方式对十二位专家展开调查，且运用层次分析法和综合评价法等处理分析调查数据，计算出三种户式中央空调型式的综合评价值及进行排序，从高到低依次为水管系统、制冷剂系统和风管系统；选用空调型式的主要影响因素及按权重排序，依次为经济收入、建筑房价和建筑面积等。

然后通过300份问卷调查和相关图表分析，得知住户会选用户式中央空调的理想年经济收入为20万元、合理建筑房价为100万元和合理建筑面积为150m2；随着经济收入、建筑房价和建筑面积的分别增长，风管系统的选用比例呈下降趋势，而水管系统和制冷剂系统则呈上升趋势，即后两者具有更大的发展潜力。

最后结合上海2005年相关统计资料，分别从经济收入、建筑面积和建筑房价角度分析上海地区户式中央空调行业市场前景，预测在不久的将来会有越来越多的人选用户式中央空调。

Although the household central air conditioning at present has such problems as high price, installing technology being insufficiently mature, the grade of service being not standard. But as Shanghai being a modern international metropolis, and "the lead goat" of the domestic economical development, the household central air conditioning will inevitably gain vigorous development in the future. Complying with the time demand, I, as an air conditioning specialized student, also has the necessity to study Shanghai experts’ quantitative evaluations on the three main patterns of the household central air conditioning, such as winds tube system, water pipe system and refrigerant system; determine the major factors which will influence inhabitants to select the air conditioning patterns, as well as forecast the respective development tendency of the three patterns and the market prospect of the household central air conditioning, thus provides advise on the market development and orientation, and realizes the social practice value of this research.

This paper first applies such ways as visit investigation and network investigation to take investigations on 12 experts, also uses analytic hierarchy process method and comprehensive evaluation method to analyse data, calculate and make arrangement on the comprehensive evaluation values of the three patterns of the household central air conditioning, and the values, from high to low, are in turn the water pipe system, the refrigerant system and the winds tube system; the major influence factors about selecting the air conditioning patterns are in turn the income, the house price and the floor space.

Then through 300 questionnaire surveys and the graph analysis, knows that the ideal annual income is 200,000 Yuan, the reasonable house price is 1 million Yuan and the reasonable floor space is 150m2 for the inhabitants to choose the household central air conditioning; with the respective growth of the income, the floor space, and the house price, the proportion on selecting the winds tube system shows the drop tendency, but the water pipe system and the refrigerant system assume the trend of escalation.

Finally integrating with Shanghai statistical data in 2005, from the angles of the income, the floor space and the house price, analyses and forecasts the market prospect of Shanghai household central air conditioning industry.